July, 2006

From Rhetoric to Practice

Like Ed Luttwak, I see a great many grays and uncertainties, not blacks and whites. I’ve never been much for blogging, and this exercise has simply persuaded that it leads to forms of “soapboxing” that fail to add much insight.
There are, however, a few additional points that I feel need to be considered if anyone […]

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Iran’s Self-Destabilization

Ted Carpenter writes
to deliberately destabilize the Iranian state by encouraging Baluch, Kurdish, Azeri and other secessionist movements strikes me as even more reckless. Yes, we hate the current government in Tehran (for very good reasons), but we must be careful not to create another cauldron of chaos in the Persian Gulf region .

What is […]

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War as a Last Resort, Not the First Option

First of all, I’m glad that Ed Luttwak has decided to join us for this round of the dialogue, for he provides some intriguing insights. I do, however, take issue with three of his arguments.
I have never suggested that we “accept any and all Iranian demands.” The whole point of negotiations is […]

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The Three Options

While the debate continues, it would be useful to focus hard on the three possible options.
First of course is to do nothing. That is contrary to American activism in all things, from surgery to foreign policy, but it is the greatest lesson of statecraft that it is usually a good idea to do less […]

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Another Round

I’m not sure we are making progress here, but fortified by a good part of a bottle of Rosé (it’s late, very hot, and il n’y a pas de climatisation en France), I’ll make another try. (I admit that I’m somewhat envious of Edward Luttwak who is sitting all of these exchanges out.)
If we’re […]

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Gerecht’s Antiseptic War Fantasy

Let’s stipulate that Mr. Gerecht and I both believe the current Iranian regime is repulsive and difficult to deal with–a point that is apparent without Mr. Gerecht repeatedly touting his knowledge of domestic Iranian politics. But the nature of the regime is only one factor among many in determining what kind of foreign policy […]

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Response to Carpenter

Okay, let’s try to take this in order. First, if Mr. Carpenter thinks either my original commentary or my response contained a heavy dose of Iranology, then that perhaps underscores why Mr. Carpenter prefers to talk about Maoist China. I can think of several folks who write well on Iran and […]

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Decidedly Underwhelming

I find it amusing that Mr. Gerecht asserts that it is unnecessary to respond at length to my thesis and then spends a major portion of his post responding to my thesis. His response, however, is decidedly underwhelming.
His first ploy is to try to impress (overawe?) readers with his knowledge about the personalities inhabiting […]

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Kicking off the Conversation: The Great Iran Debate

Concerning the commentary by Messrs. Carpenter, Cordesman, and Luttwak, its not really necessary to respond in length to the first two gentlemen, since Mr. Carpenter isn’t really writing about the Islamic Republic—he’s writing about the United States and what might be called the libertarian conception of American foreign policy and especially the projection of American […]

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Before Bombing: A Three-Year Plan for Iran

Center for Strategic and International Studies senior advisor Edward N. Luttwak argues that if diplomatic efforts fail, “the United States must be ready to bomb the buildings that are likely to house critical processes and equipment.” This can be a single quick strike, and need not destroy all the many Iranian facilities, Luttwak argues, because “the purpose is not to solve the problem presented by Iran or even its nuclear program, but only to delay the acquisition of nuclear weapons as long as possible, in the hopes that a better regime comes along.” The Iranians can get nukes no sooner than three years, though, so within that time the U.S. should concentrate on weakening the Iranian regime through non-military punitive measures. Furthemore, Luttwak maintains that Iran could fragment along national lines. “There are at least 20 million Azeris in Western Iran who are increasingly determined to assert their nationality,” Luttwak say, and U.S. policy aimed at weakening Iran should support them.

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We Have the Right Policy Now and Better Options for the Future

In his reply to Reuel Marc Gerecht’s lead essay, Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues the U.S. must exhaust all its diplomatic options before taking military action against Iran, especially given the shaky situations in Iraq and Afghanistan. In any case, Cordesman argues, airstrikes are unlikely to be succeed in stopping the Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Further, Iran already has lethal chemical and biological capacities, and the ability to strike back seriously in a variety of ways. If a strike becomes necessary after the exhaustion of non-military options, it would be better to wait until the targets are clearer. Containment and deterrence, Cordesman maintains, may be a more effective approach.

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A Cure Worse than the Disease

Cato vice president for defense and foreign policy studies Ted Galen Carpenter argues Gerecht’s strategy of bombing Iranian nuclear facilities may be harder than advertised and that “thousands of innocent Iranians would perish in U.S. air strikes.” Such an attack might trigger a “massive regional crisis.” “America’s troubles with the Islamic world do not yet constitute a war of civilizations,” Carpenter writes, “but Gerecht’s strategy could well produce that result.” Carpenter argues the U.S. should try to persuade Iran to give up its nuke program by offering a “grand bargain,” and if that doesn’t work, should pursue a policy of containment and deterrence, which, while “nerve-wracking,” has proved effective against deadlier and more fanatical regimes.

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Iran Nuke News

Let it not be said that this month’s issue is untimely!
Iran’s top negotiator on nuclear matters, Ali Larijani, and Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief, were in negotations today in Brussels. As the New York Times reports, there is “no indication that any progress was made. . . .”
Bloomberg News reports that “the […]

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