Punishment versus Probation
by James Q. Wilson
The Conversation
March 25th, 2009
Western and I agree that post-prison employment programs have only a small effect on recidivism, but he defends them by saying that prison also has only a modest effect on recidivism. He is correct, but he neglects the deterrent effect of prison and, in my view, exaggerates the incapacitative effect of intensive probation. Estimating the comparative deterrent and incapacitative effects of prison versus intensive probation (which may include some employment programs) is a difficult business. If Western has a blog-suitable estimate, I hope he will state it. But prison also has a retributive effect: people, especially victims of crime, want the wrongdoer to be punished. I doubt that many people think that burglars, robbers, and rapists are suitably punished if they are sent to an employment program. Therefore the question Western should answer is for what crimes would he rely on employment programs?
