May, 2011

Population, Land, and Movies: Another Reply to Clark

by Bryan Caplan
The Conversation
May 24th, 2011

In his last response, Greg Clark poses a few more challenges. 1. “Could there be, heavens forfend, an optimal level of world population below 100 trillion? Yes.” I addressed this very point in my original essay: One can admittedly imagine negative externalities of population vast enough to outweigh all the positives. Just picture a world [...]

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The Cost of Natalist Tax Credits, the Magnitude of Coercion, and the Value of People

by Bryan Caplan
The Conversation
May 20th, 2011

Some responses to several excellent questions from Matt: 1. Matt’s concerned about the distributional effect of natalist tax credits: Given that his policy would only apply to taxpayers, might hedge fund managers with large families get a free pass? And would this not mean doubly penalizing working class couples unable to bear children? Actually, if [...]

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What About Iceland?

by Gregory Clark
The Conversation
May 19th, 2011

Bryan objects to my intermediate position on future population growth. This is, will we return to subsistence income levels? No. Will there be significant net costs from population growth? Likely yes. But I think it reflects a problem of his libertarian position on fertility that he has to have a world where there is NO [...]

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When It Comes to Fertility, How Can All Other Things Ever Be Equal?

by Matthew Connelly
The Conversation
May 19th, 2011

Bryan is gracious in admitting he may have underestimated what we might have to pay people to have more babies. So how much more would he be willing to pay? Given that his policy would only apply to taxpayers, might hedge fund managers with large families get a free pass? And would this not mean [...]

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Fertility and the Gift of Life

by Bryan Caplan
The Conversation
May 17th, 2011

A reply to Matthew Connelly. 1. When I wrote Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, I tried to review the whole literature on the effect of natalist incentives. But this wasn’t my focus, and based on Connelly’s references, I confess that I may have overlooked some relevant research. Fortunately for me, as I pointed out [...]

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Clark’s Muted Malthusianism

by Bryan Caplan
The Conversation
May 17th, 2011

1. I am pleased to see how muted Greg’s Malthusianism really is. His initial post suggested—at least to my ears—that bad times could be just around the corner: So the downward march of food and energy prices since 1800 may well end soon. Current high prices may presage a food scarce-energy scarce future. If this [...]

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Economists Still Do Not Know Where Babies Come From

by Matthew Connelly
The Conversation
May 16th, 2011

Bryan does not deny that there is a huge problem with his entire approach: we do not know how to explain or predict fertility change. Without understanding what drives fertility, we do not know how to control it—at least not without coercion. The danger of drifting from incentives to disincentives to outright compulsion is not [...]

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Sure, I Can Make a Bet

by Gregory Clark
The Conversation
May 16th, 2011

Bryan Caplan has four main rejoinders to my argument that there may soon be once again a significant negative population externality: (1) If I am confident there will soon be a negative population externality would I like to bet on when income per capita will start declining? 2020, 2030, 2040? (2) Land is still superabundant [...]

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