What to Do about Iran?

What to do about Iran? The Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions present probably the most vexing problem facing U.S. foreign policymakers today. It is clear enough that the world will become a significantly more dangerous place if Iran, a radical Islamist state that actively supports international terrorism, succeeds in acquiring nuclear weapons. But efforts to prevent that outcome by means of military force would also entail enormous dangers, including the very real risk that they would fail to accomplish their objective. Sorting through U.S. options requires wrestling with a series of agonizingly difficult questions. How much time do we have before the whole issue is mooted by an Iranian nuclear test? Between now and then, is there any non-military approach not yet tried—a “grand bargain,” sanctions, covert subversion of the current regime—that offers a decent prospect of success? If those approaches are tried and fail, should the U.S. resign itself to a nuclear Iran and rely on deterrence as it did during the Cold War? Or is deterrence ill suited to a regime run by religious extremists? If deterrence is unacceptable, could a bombing campaign, the most commonly discussed military option, be counted on to work? How would we know if it did or didn’t work? How might Iran respond to a preventive attack? And finally, if the U.S. decides not to exercise a military option, what happens if Israel decides otherwise?

American Enterprise Institue resident scholar and Middle East foreign policy expert Reuel Marc Gerecht will launch the discussion with a provocative essay arguing for the preemptive bombing of Iranian nuclear sites. Jumping into the fray to reply to Gerecht will be Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute; Edward N. Luttwak, senior fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of widely discussed recent article in Commentary, “Three Reasons Not to Bomb Iran — Yet“; and and Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and author of Iran’s Developing Military Capabilities.